Saturday, April 27, 2019
Greece is finding it difficult to manage its public sector deficit as Essay
Greece is finding it difficult to manage its open sector deficit as a tool to improve its economy. What alternatives are open - Essay role modelThe figures 1a below shows the evolution of some key macroeconomic indicators for Greece from 2006 to 2010 Figure 1a gross domestic product growth and Unemployment for Greece from 2006 2010 Source IMF The economical problems for Greece The macroeconomic problems for Greece are aplenty. The GDP is contracting and unemployment rising. Most importantly, its debt has been constantly increasing for the last many historic period and as of end 2010, it was 143% of its GDP (as shown in Figure 1b below) with genuine deficit at 13% of the GDP. The up-to-the-minute financial mess in Greece came to the open when the impertinentlyly elected organisation announced in October 2010 that its current deficit had been falsely reported for the last few years. This revelation led yields on classic government bonds and interest rates for new credit to ris e astronomically, meaning that it was no eternal viable for Greece to advertize money from the market to maintain the levels of government spending that it had been doing since many years. The key priority now for Greece to subdue its economic woes is to bring its debt to more sustainable levels with a first tar fuck off of non more than blow% of GDP. Figure 1b Gross debt as percentage of GDP for Greece 2006 to 2010 Source IMF Option for Greece to alleviate its economic woes The Greek economy enjoyed growth from 2003-2007 bangingly due to high government spending. Historically, public spending accounted for a large part (40%) of the GDP. Since public spending is not a luxury that Greece enjoys anymore, it needs to bring the economy rump to growth through other means with the top priority of bring debt levels down to instil investor authorization in Greece. Because Greece is a member of the EMU, it has no longer the option to devalue its currency (to help profess exports mor e competitive) or to control its monetary policy that best suits its own economy (interest rates and inflation). accustomed this, Greece could consider exiting the EMU - by exiting the EMU and dropping the Euro as its currency, Greece would revert to its original currency, the Drachma. It would no longer be under the control of the ECB for its monetary policy and it can devalue its currency and let its exporters get the competitive advantage. However, this would bring largely negative effect on the investors in Greece and would affect the investment sexual climax into Greece. The overall effect may be a little to no change in the GDP but a largely disgruntled EU. So, Greece must look at options (with staying in the EMU in mind) aimed at reducing its overall sovereign debt and improving the economy. The possibilities for Greece then are a) Reduce sovereign debt by restructuring the debt Clearly, sovereign debt is the biggest economic problem for Greece today. It is at a highly unsu stainable level of 143% of the GDP. This means that any new loans for Greece would come at very high interest rates. Now, Greece could either simply default on its debt or it could try to restructure its debt. A debt default would mean even lower investor confidence which may not be a very positive sign for Greece. It could however, try to restructure its debt by 1) Extending the maturity of its debt 2) reduce the face value of the debt 3) Combination of both 1 and 2 above Extending the mat
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